Compressing Decision Making
Major Models
- Learning from Failure
- Facing Reality vs. Pretending / Ignoring Reality
- Determination / Courage
- Social Norms
- Opportunity Cost
- Triage / Prioritization (80/20 Pareto Principle)
Major Techniques
- Go to underlying reasons for the decision, and reason up. Goal Factor.
- If a new person walked into your life, what would they do? Escape your mental frame.
- When possible, run a trial of important decision before committing to them.
- Define and enshrine core priorities
- Premortem
- What would the most determined, courageous version of me do?
- Zero Based Thinking
- If I was not already in this job / relationship / situation, would I enter it again?
- If any variant of no, ask: How do I get out, and how quickly can I do it?
Minor Models
- Confirmation Bias
- Short term emotions
- Prevention Focus vs. Promotion Focus
- Identify and don’t tolerate the problems that stand in the way of your goals
- Design plans that explicitly lay out the tasks that will get you over your problems and onto your goals
Minor Techniques
- Find objective Information
- Distance yourself emotionally from the decision
- Worst case scenario
- Minimize the downside of your decision
- Set tripwires to check whether a decision needs to be made / changed
- Assume you can’t choose any of the existing options. What would you do?
- Assume you’re forced into one decision. What would you do?
- Have multiple good options in front of you simultaneously (Protects from premature commitment)
- Seriously consider the opposite on important decisions. Find a belief driving your behavior and argue with all energy against it.
- Look at your decision from the perspective of several time frames. 10 days / 10 months / 10 years, for example.
- When you have a difficult decision to make, flesh it out as a values conflict
- Honestly ask yourself what you want and what should be done about it.
- What am I likely to lie to myself about in this space?